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Forum:2009 Atlantic hurricane season
June Invest 92L: Azores AoI: Azores http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?subset=AERONET_Azores.2009152.aqua.2km. 22:22, 1 June 2009 (UTC) :Officially on TWO. 00:11, 2 June 2009 (UTC) Invest 92L Invest for now. 16:33, 2 June 2009 (UTC) :Wow, this looks a lot like Vince Jr. Seems doubtful it'll get a name, but it also seemed doubtful that Vince would get a name at first, too. What an odd start to the 2009 season that'd be! --Patteroast 21:07, 2 June 2009 (UTC) ::Regained organization. 23:33, 2 June 2009 (UTC) :::Poofed from NHC and NRL. Some suggests it was subtropical... wow! We had already mind blowing situations early in the season! Storm's Eye 14:15, 4 June 2009 (UTC) 93L. INVEST In the Caribbean. Both GFDL and HWRF predict a cat. 2! 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:59, 27 June 2009 (UTC) July 94L.INVEST Wow, it's boring in here and in Wikipedia. There was already a 94L.invest a couple of days ago. - 00:37, 14 July 2009 (UTC) The Post-Apocalyptic Nuclear Winter that is the Worldwide Tropics I have conducted some of the most extensive research on historical tropical cyclone activity ever by an armchair meteorologist and I have not seen a world this dead since 1977 (the most inactive year worldwide in the Naming Era 1950). The Southern Hemisphere just had one of its least active seasons in many years. The West Pacific is off to a very slow start. It's been a while since WPAC didn't produce a storm until May, as was the case this year. They've had two fewer storms and one fewer major typhoon than they had at this point in the 2008 season. WPAC has had half as many typhoons as they'd had this time last year. As you can see, the Atlantic is also dead. At this point in 2008, Cristobal was four days away. We have yet to have a named storm in 2009. The Eastern Pacific appears to be the only basin that's meeting its quota, so to speak. I have no explanation for this worldwide dead. I don't have any explanation for 1977 either. That year, pretty much every basin saw near record lows in activity. There were just 60 total storms, worldwide, in 1977. The average for the past 30 years is 87. To put this in perspective, 1992 saw 59 hurricanes. From what I'm seeing, I doubt 2009 will threaten that low mark but it could well be one of the lowest since. This global quiet is really quite remarkable. The Atlantic looks like a winter wasteland right now. This is more than an El Nino, this is a famine. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:11, 16 July 2009 (UTC) :I think an explanation for this is, in 1995 and onward to 2008, the hurricane seasons have been coming above average, but that active hurricane cycle was said to last for 1 to 2 decades, and I think the active hurricane period that begun in 1995 is coming to a close. If I am right, then starting next year in 2010, and continuing for 20 to 30 years, we will be knocked into another inactive hurricane cycle, just like what happened from the mid 1970's to 1994. If that happens, we will finally get a break from all these storms. And about what you were saying on the inactivity, SkyFury, I have no idea why it's coming so quiet now. So far, we have only seen '''12' tropical storm-strength storms in the entire northern hemisphere alone. 2 from the NIO, 6 from the WPac, which is usually onto their 11th-12th TS on average at this time of year, 4 from the EPac, which is okay at this time, and none in the Atlantic. I don't know what's causing it, although it is giving us a break from these storms; our last break was 2006, when the East Pacific was at it's most active point since 1992, but the Atlantic was rather quiet. 00:12, 25 July 2009 (UTC) ::I was of the understanding that the active period was expected to last 2-3 decades. Also remember, 1997 and 2006 were near or below "average" (as NHC defines it. IMO the past 30 years are a better sampling than the last 50). My point was that typically if the Atlantic is quiet, the Pacific is active and vice versa. This year, everywhere is quiet. I can't remember a drought this severe this late in the year except a few instances that have come up in my research. With a late-arriving El Nino expected, the Pacific might see a late surge but in most El Nino years, the Atlantic is active early but sees a below average Aug-Oct. In 2006, the ATL had had three storms by July 18 (one found in post-analysis). In 1997, the ATL saw record activity in July with four storms. August will tell the tale and one basin might eventually go on a hot streak but I have never seen a July this dead. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:01, 25 July 2009 (UTC) :This year is prob a less active version of 1977 or 1979, Sky, but if this inactivity continues, and the 2009 AHS pulls a 1997 August, we might not see a storm until September, but if the East Pacific sees little storms in August and September, then that basin will have little time left, because the Eastern Pacific dies out like wildfire once October comes in, but this does not ''always happen. In the Atlantic, November isn't always a stranger to major hurricanes, and recently, November has been acting like August in years like '08, '01, and '99. Oh, and by the way, SkyFury, July only sees a storm once every one to two years, making the lack of July activity this year normal, since the last time no storms formed in July was 2004, 5''' years ago. The 2005-2008 streak of July storms lasted four years, making that the most # of consecutive years that storms formed in July on record. August and September are yet to come. If this year pulls a 2004 by now, it could still be a bad year, but it may also just pull a 1914 year as well, and have only one or two storms form. This year still could be average, but looking at the atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic/EPac/WPac, I don't see any storms forming in the next week or two. 21:58, 27 July 2009 (UTC) ::The thing that really strikes me is not so much the lack of named storms but the lack of any activity whatsoever. There haven't even been many suspect areas. It's not like a bunch of invests keep getting nipped in the bud by shear, a la 2007. There's almost been nothing to get nipped. And I'm talking about worldwide, not just the Atlantic. Even the Eastern Pacific has gone quiet now after that little hot streak. I have never seen the West Pacific this quiet. That place is essenially a giant cauldron of boiling hot water and not much to run into. They've had two storms this month, two! And one of those was hardly deserving of a name. It's almost August! The lack of storms in the Atlantic at this point is not entirely surprising. A little unexpected but not unprescidented. The Pacific however, especially WPAC, is downright unbelievable. I've seen Januaries more active than this July has been over there. The word 'desolate' comes to mind when I look at the world's oceans right now. The Atlantic looks like winter; almost no precipitation at all. There are a few cyclonic swirls in EPAC that I guess put it a notch or two above dead. The West Pacific has a swath of heavy showers around the ITCZ but nothing cyclonic. And the Indian Ocean looks almost as dead as the Atlantic. I will say, however, that if you were gonna go to the Caribbean, you couldn't have picked a better month. You get winter weather with hurricane season rates. That's a once-in-a-long-damn-time deal right there! -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 07:45, 29 July 2009 (UTC) :I know, SkyFury. This inactivity makes the Caribbean a '''perfect place to be by now. 1977 and 1979 were also quiet, but some of the storms in those years were notable. In 1977, A cat 5 hit Mexico from the gulf coast, doing heavy damage, in the AHS. In the East Pac, Hurricane heather caused record rainfall in Arizona, and in the West Pac, Typhoon Babe became the last typhoon named after the island it struck in Japan. 1979 was another quiet year, but had thousands of deaths and billions in damage in the AHS, and the strongest tropical cyclone that ever existed formed in the Pacific. In 2009, we have hardly had any storms form ths year so far, and if they did form, they haven't made themselves useful in any way. The basins are still quiet now, but the NIO doesn't get going again until November. The 3 main basins may keep up this inactivity through the rest of this year hopefully, although it's confusing to see no storms active in all 3 basins, especially at this time of year. 23:21, 29 July 2009 (UTC) ::Central Pacific just got a depression (a gift from EPAC) that may become a storm in the next day or two. I agree with your point wholeheartedly. 2004 didn't start until the last day of July and you see how well that went. Some bad storms have come in inactive years. Andrew is one (name one more notable storm in 1992...ST1 doesn't count). And for a season that saw just seven storms and no major hurricanes, there certainly was a lot of dying going on in 1994. So we'll see. Like I said before, August will tell the tale. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:18, 30 July 2009 (UTC) August August is here and storms aren't. 04:38, 3 August 2009 (UTC) AoI: West of Senegal This one's a long way off, but a week from now it'll be heading for the Caribbean. Both the CMC and GFS develop it, and the long-term GFS sends it into the Gulf (very warm waters) before dissapating. Could be one to watch if it can hold together and reach TS status. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:20, 6 August 2009 (UTC) :And as quickly as it comes, it's gone. Today marks the 21st anniversary of the beginning of the 1988 season. Not one season has started later since. However, if you ignore the subtropical storm in April, 1992 didn't start until August 17...and had a grand total of six named storms that year. Just goes to show you that all it takes is one to change the face of a season. 1987 didn't start until August 9. I have to say that I don't see a storm forming by Sunday. 1992 aside, that would make the 2009 season the latest start in 25 years! 1984 didn't get going until August 19 with Subtropical Storm One. Arthur didn't form until August 29. The only modern-era season to start later than that was the Dead Year of Dead Years: 1977 when Anita formed on August 30. 1977 was very nearly the first September start since 1920. It should be noted that many seasons that didn't start until mid-August went on to be fairly active years. 1984 ended up with 13, 1950 started on August 12 and also had 13 including a record 8 major hurricanes (the one record 2005 failed to break). 1949 is another example. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:47, 7 August 2009 (UTC) ::This afternoon's TWO is quiet as ever.I've compiled the Dates of first Atlantic tropical cyclones for every year since the deadliest-ever 1780 season for comparison,right now this is the slowest start since 1992 if subtropicals count and 1987 if they don't,but as the NOAA forecast says,late starts don't mean no major hurricanes.And looking over the long history makes clear that there are no patterns to count on,at all!--L.E./ 22:13, 8 August 2009 (UTC) 02L.ANA 99L.INVEST Just off the coast of Africa, but it looks better than anything else so far. NHC's giving it a medium chance for development. Ana? Is that you? We've been waiting. --Patteroast 16:56, 9 August 2009 (UTC) :It appears as though the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season is finally about to begin. However, seeing as Ana is unlikely to form today, this will be the Atlantic's latest start since 1984 (discounting 1992). And that's assuming this thing develops. It looks good and conditions are apparently favorable. The models aren't unanimous and the ones that do make it a tropical storm weaken it in about 96-108 hours. We'll see. I would say fingers crossed, but I'm very wary of storms that form out there. Cape Verde storms always make me nervous, especially this time of year. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 20:40, 9 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression Two NHC says we've got TD2, forecast to become Ana! --Patteroast 12:22, 11 August 2009 (UTC) :Hey! There it is! At last, life! Looks like we're gonna have to be patient though, but it's got plenty of time. It doesn't look like much right now but we'll see if it can get any deep convection organized. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 15:53, 11 August 2009 (UTC) ::EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY according to Advisory #4.--L.E./ 03:43, 12 August 2009 (UTC) ::But Advisory #6 sounds less confident.--L.E./ 16:32, 12 August 2009 (UTC) ::Advisory #8,"STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE".(Forecast has it peak at 45 Kt).--L.E./ 03:06, 13 August 2009 (UTC) :::This is unbelieveable. This season just cannot get going. We're already at the latest start since 1984. If we don't get Ana sometime within the next seven days, it will be the latest start in at least 32 years! I'm actually stunned, at this point. Earlier this afternoon, the depression had built up vigorous convection and was on the verge of ending the drought. But in just seven hours, all that convection completely evaporated. I just can't believe it. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:37, 13 August 2009 (UTC) ::::25 years,not 32.In 1984 Arthur got storm status on the 29th.(1967 and 1977 are tied with the 30th...before that there's 1941...before that 1914...and before that there weren't any storms recorded in 1845,but I wouldn't be surprised if some were missed).See Dates of first Atlantic tropical cyclones.--L.E./ 04:04, 13 August 2009 (UTC) ::::Advisory #11 says it's a remnant low.--L.E./ 22:03, 13 August 2009 (UTC) :::::NHC's giving it a medium chance to redevelop. --Patteroast 15:30, 14 August 2009 (UTC) ::::::Whoa, high chance now! Looks like TD 2's trying to revive itself. All of a sudden, the Atlantic has gotten interesting. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:37, 15 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Ana Hello Ana! Looks like TD2 resumed advisories last night, and has been upgraded! --Patteroast 12:40, 15 August 2009 (UTC) :Um... I know its accuracy hasn't been that awesome in the past, but it's kind of worrisome when the first CMC run I look at after the storm gets named has it heading into the gulf and explosively strengthening. Hurricane season has really begun! --Patteroast 12:51, 15 August 2009 (UTC) ::Ana! Sweetheart, there you are! I've been looking everywhere for you, where the heck have you been! If Ana can just make it through, this patch of dry air and ugly shear environment, she might be able to cause some trouble. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:44, 15 August 2009 (UTC) :Well, let's hope the current track forecast from NHC is off (as 5-days tracks often are). Because right now, "Mid-late August Tropical depression forms, dissipates, reforms, then head straight toward southern Florida to cross in the Gulf" sounds way too much like a bad remake of a movie I don't want to ever see again.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 17:57, 15 August 2009 (UTC) ::Well, whether it hits Hispaniola - World-Famous Storm Killer or not, I don't much like the idea of Ana making it to the Gulf of Mexico in one-piece. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:22, 16 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression Ana Recon flight couldn't find an storm-force winds, and Ana has been downgraded. Forecast only shows a slight strengthening before crashing against Hispaniola... but there's a good chance the next advisory could be the last, unless something changes. --Patteroast 20:50, 16 August 2009 (UTC) 03L.BILL AoI: South of Cape Verde Latest wave off Africa, NHC's got this at medium chance of development. Surprised it's not already an invest. --Patteroast 02:05, 13 August 2009 (UTC) :Well,so far this season,storm prediction's been a bad INVESTment.--L.E./ 03:05, 13 August 2009 (UTC) ::In the next couple of days, it's gonna hit a wall of about 20-30 kt shear that is just bulldozing through the Atlantic right now. It's already knocked off TD 2 and this disturbance might be next. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:44, 13 August 2009 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Been invest'd, NHC's got it at a high chance of development... maybe this'll be Ana instead? Maybe this and TD2 will both go poof? Who knows. --Patteroast 19:02, 13 August 2009 (UTC) :The models ''really like this one. Only AVNI fails to make it a hurricane and five different models, including SHIPS, take it to at least 90 knots in a week. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:39, 15 August 2009 (UTC) ::HWRF has this as a category 4 hurricane heading into the Bahamas. Sounds like we're going to be seeing Hurricane Bill sooner, rather than later. --Patteroast 12:53, 15 August 2009 (UTC) :::As for right now, NRL's having a little hiccup and 90L's disappeared... but when you view all the storms for the year, it shows up at 03L.THREE. So...--Patteroast 13:05, 15 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression Three And there it is. Forecast to become Bill shortly, a hurricane soon, and will be heading towards major hurricane status at the end of the forecast period. --Patteroast 14:53, 15 August 2009 (UTC) :This is the scary one, IMO. The long term environment for TD 3 looks a bit better than it does for Ana. It's storms like TD 3 that tend to make me nervous. I don't like where it's pointed. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:52, 15 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Bill Advisory #2 was all it took to get named,and the forecast is steady strengthening up to 90Kt in five days.--L.E./ 21:24, 15 August 2009 (UTC) :Advisory #3's accompanying 120-hour forecast is 95KT.--L.E./ 02:57, 16 August 2009 (UTC) ::As Ana struggles,Bill builds...60 mph winds now,forecast 90KT in 48 hours and 105KT in 96 hours,on track for the Georgia coast.--L.E./ 16:14, 16 August 2009 (UTC) :::Bill is a very happy tropical storm. It looks scary good right now. I could easily see it approaching hurricane strength by nightfall. L.E., I have a condo on the Georgia coast, please don't say that. The models are starting to show more of a northward curve toward the end of the period as they get a better handle on a forecast break in the subtropical ridge. The official forecast is actually on the southern edge of the guidance envelope. That said, I hope I'm not the only person scared by NHC saying its forecast after 48 hrs could be conservative...a forecast that brings it to 105 knots by the end of the period. HWRF and GFS make Bill a 120 knot Category 4, something I want pointed at open water thank you very much. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:05, 16 August 2009 (UTC) ::::Might as well try my hand at a prediction: no East Coast landfall, but it gives Bermuda a Category 4 thrashing a la Fabian. It, however, stops short of Cat. 5 (150 mph) Jake52 20:01, 16 August 2009 (UTC) :::::Forecast now up to 95KT at 48 hours and 105KT at 72 through 120.If it dodges Georgia,fine,just don't bring it up here...we've just had almost the only rain-free weekend of the summer!--L.E./ ::::::Well at 105 knots, rain is the least of your problems. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:38, 17 August 2009 (UTC) :::::::Bill is larger than Ike, moving WSW, and starting to develop an eye. 2007Astro'sHurricane 05:10, 17 August 2009 (UTC) Hurricane Bill 04L.CLAUDETTE AoI: Florida Keys It first, I didn't give this one much thought, but it has lingered for several days and hasn't just not gone away; it's gotten more concentrated and organized. It would not surprise me at all to see it bumped up to medium risk tomorrow. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:17, 16 August 2009 (UTC) 91L.Invest :High chance. 05:53, 16 August 2009 (UTC) ::Am I really that good? It's now officially invest'd according to NHC's floater page. Watch out! I think this thing has Claudette potential and it's right on our doorstep. Here we are gazing nervously out at some ominous clouds in the distance and then this b/tch pops up on our back porch. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:55, 16 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression 4 ... 10:19, 16 August 2009 (UTC) :Sorry, was logged out when I typed this message. T.D. Four per NHC. Jake52 10:21, 16 August 2009 (UTC) ::Forecast to become Claudette, too. Things sure got ''really interesting (in the Chinese sense thereof) all of a sudden.-- 14:22, 16 August 2009 (UTC) :::And that one was *me*--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 14:23, 16 August 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Claudettte 1215PM Update Statement from the NHC says it's Claudette!--L.E./ 16:38, 16 August 2009 (UTC) :Did I nail this one on the head or what! I bet Panama City's gonna have a wonderful evening tonight. What is up with the Atlantic now? After spending the past two and a half months in a coma, the place has gone nuts. I mean, we've gotten three named storms in the past 36 hours. That's ridiculous. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:20, 16 August 2009 (UTC) ::Am I seeing a banding eye forming on radar? My GRLevelX radar program clearly depicts what looks like a banding eye forming. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 20:06, 16 August 2009 (UTC) :::We have landfall. Claudette just came ashore in the Destin-Miramar Beach area at about 12:05 am CDT according to my observation of the radar. I expect the official announcement will come momentarily. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 05:09, 17 August 2009 (UTC)